An Inconvenient Election

After two days of voting and then a hastily organized third day of polling, Egyptians have elected Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi as their new president. With 97% of the vote counted, the former Field Marshal seems to have garnered over 90% of the ballots cast. That is a landslide, but the results are far from a mandate.

In the first presidential elections after the 2011 Revolution, the first "free" presidential election in Egypt's history, Mohammed Morsi won in 2012 with roughly 52% of registered voters casting their ballots. That kind of participation is about what voter turnout is in the U.S. during a presidential election when voter participation is considered to be "excellent." Compared with the U.S. there are many factors that contribute to non-voting behavior in Egypt: grinding poverty, comparatively low literacy rates, lack of understanding of voting procedures, a sense of disenfranchisement among those living in poverty, etc. The point is that 52% registered voter participation in the 2012 Egyptian presidential elections was considered to be "quite good."

Fast-forward to the Egyptian 2014 presidential election, the election pitting Mr. al-Sisi against leftist, Hamdeen Sabahi. The hope is that voter turnout will be higher, higher than the 2012 presidential election. With high voter participation, the victor could claim a strong sense of legitimacy. Under those kind of circumstances, a landslide victory would give the election winner a mandate. No such luck this time around. Voter turnout after the first two days of voting was an anaemic 37%. 

Blaming the perilously hot weather and a minor Muslim religious observation, authorities announced a federal holiday on the second day of voting and then abruptly announced a third day of voting. Registered voters who stayed at home were even threatened with a $70 fine (a large sum for some Egyptians) for not voting. When the votes are all finally counted, it is doubtful that vote turnout will have climbed above 40%.

This is bad news for al-Sisi on several fronts. First, he cannot claim anything remotely close to a mandate. Having garnered 90% of the vote he may try to make this claim, but he will face valid criticism and opposition in doing so. Secondly, the now-outlawed Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and other conservative Muslim groups like the MB encouraged their followers to boycott the elections. Low voter participation fuels these groups and their causes. Although this election's relative low turnout is likely to have been the result of apathy and disenfranchisement, the MB and groups similar to the MB will claim these numbers as a sign of support. Finally, the numbers intimate that the fragmentation that has prevailed in Egyptian society since Mohammed Morsi's ouster last summer will probably continue. None of this is good news for incoming President al-Sisi.

And there is another dark and scary number lurking in the shadows. In the 2012 presidential election over 13 million Egyptians cast their vote for Mohammed Morsi, the same Mohammed Morsi that now languishes in prison. As a result of the 2014 election, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi will have captured something close to that amount of votes. For all of the idolatry and talk of a cult of personality associated with al-Sisi, he will have garnered roughly the same number of votes as Morsi captured in the previous election. 

Given that massive economic restructuring in Egypt will have to soon commence, these numbers are quite inconvenient for the new president.

One Step Up and Two Steps Back?

One step up ... maybe

Following months of speculation, Egypt's worst kept secret was this week finally made public. Field Marshall Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces who led the ouster of former president Mohammed Morsi, communicated his resignation from the military in order to run for the presidency. In a televised speech aired earlier in the week, al-Sisi announced his resignation, declaring his presidential candidacy. 

For many Egyptians this is good news. Al-Sisi has an almost cult-like following.  A career infantry officer, he is cut from the same military mold as Nasser and Sadat. In his previous speeches he has focused on security and stability, two themes popular among business owners and shop keepers. He is a devout Muslim who often quotes from the Koran, a personal characteristic that is popular among Egypt's poor and working classes. In his speech this week he stressed security, unity, hard work, and prosperity. Who doesn't support these ideas?

For some Egyptians the promises of a brighter future ring hollow. For them the prospect of an al-Sisi presidency represents catastrophe and failure. In 2012, when president Morsi tapped al-Sisi to head the armed forces, conservative Muslims and members of the now-outlawed Muslim Brotherhood inwardly cheered. They saw in al-Sisi a kindred, pious spirit. Finally one of their own, a conservative Muslim, was heading Egypt's revered and powerful military apparatus. Less than a year later, al-Sisi was leading the charge against President Morsi, a charge that led to Morsi's fall and subsequent incarceration. A charge that led to the downfall of the Morsi government. Al-Sisi's former Muslim Brotherhood supporters now view him as a traitor. 

Some liberal-minded university students do not support al-Sisi either, although they do not see him as a traitor. Liberals view al-Sisi as another Mubarak, a former military commander assuming the reigns of the state. A return to business as usual. An outright denial of the ideals of the 2011 revolution.

Given the public display of flags, posters, even al-Sisi shaped chocolates however, the former general's supporters seem to grossly outnumber his detractors. Al-Sisi is expected to win the upcoming May elections by a wide margin. With elections just two months away, the only other candidate in the presidential race is Hamdeen Sabahi, a liberal/leftist politician and poet who finished third in the 2012 presidential election. Sabahi is popular among college liberals but is seen by most as a rather obscure leftist.

Pragmatists would question why either al-Sisi or Sabahi would want to seek the presidential post. The job will certainly not be easy. The next president will administer over an Egypt where one in every four or five citizens lives on less than two dollars per day. An Egypt where the government annually pays billions of dollars toward bread and fuel subsidies. An Egypt where inflation rates are rising into the double-digits. An Egypt where weekly public protests and clashes result in multiple deaths. An Egypt where daily power outages and rolling blackouts have become commonplace. To solve these crippling problems will be no easy task. Both al-Sisi and Sabahi have good reputations going into this election. Given the daunting tasks at hand, they have much to lose.

Two steps back ... certainly

If it wasn't al-Sisi's candidacy grabbing international headlines, it was Egyptian judge, Saeed Elgazar. Judge Elgazar is the man who this week sentenced 529 arrested protestors to death. The trial took place in the Minya district, a couple of hundred kilometers south of Cairo. 

Clashes between security forces and pro-Morsi demonstrators in Minya came to a head last August with protestors attacking a local police station, killing one officer. Security forces then overwhelmed the protestors, arresting hundreds. The protestors' trial was held this week. It lasted two days. Only 150 of the defendants, wearing their required white coveralls and locked behind a crowded cage in the courtroom, were present. The rest of the defendants were held in various prisons and detainment units throughout the country. Defense attorneys were not able to meet with most of the defendants. Testimony during the two-day trial was scant. In the end, 529 of the protestors received a death sentence. Judge Elgazar acquitted only 16 people. 

Human rights organizations immediately condemned the proceedings. Human Right Watch, Amnesty International, and even the United Nations Human Rights Commission have all criticized the conduct of the trial for its lack of respect to the rights of the accused and absence of procedural due process. Government officials and legal experts in Cairo were quick to distance themselves from the ruling, pointing out that provincial courts operate independently of the federal courts. The same Cairo officials were also quick to stress that the Minya ruling was subject to a federal appeals process. Few here in Cairo expect the sentences to be carried out, believing instead that a successful appeals process will overturn the decision. Still ...

Since August and the crackdown on political protests, over 16,000 people have been arrested. Most are still awaiting trial.

Whale Watching in the Sahara

Mud-mounds and bluffs overlooking Wadi Al-Hitan

We are heading out this morning, two passengers on a whale watching expedition to the Wadi Al-Hitan, a part of the Eastern Sahara. Meghan, one of the teachers with whom we work, put this expedition together a couple of weeks ago, and she has issued a 100% guarantee that we will see whales today, albeit dead ones. Very dead. Millions of years dead.

50 million years ago, most of Egypt was submerged beneath a shallow sea, a sea that was home to an abundant amount of marine life including a primitive type type of whale known as a basilosaurus. A cross between a small whale and an alligator, a basilosaurus could grow to 20 meters in length, and it swam alongside tortoises, crocodiles, and sharks. The waters teemed with life with the basilosaurus floating happily atop the food chain. The fossilized remains of the basilosaurus' lush marine environment can be seen in the eastern portion of the Sahara Desert. Located a couple of hundred kilometers southwest of Cairo, Wadi Al-Hitan is a part of this area and is a UNESCO World Heritage Site. This is our destination.

Including Hany, our very experienced guide, and his two compatriots, there are fifteen of us traveling in the caravan this morning. Dana and I have shared previous adventures with several of our fellow travelers. Sarah, Rick, and their two children, Matthew and Emily (who speak better Arabic than all of the rest of us put together), joined us on trips to Luxor and Old Cairo. Joe and Rosanna trekked to Luxor, too. This morning, we gather at a local market just before clambering into our ships of the desert. Were we to make this journey a century ago, we would be climbing onto comfortable camel perches adorned with brightly colored Egyptian woolen blankets. Today, we climb aboard dusty Toyota Landcruisers.

The drive there proves fascinating, however. We exit the main highway just outside of Giza, off-roading across hard-packed sand for many, barren kilometers. Our driver, Hamdy, is a tall, handsome man that hails from a remote village in central Egypt. He wears a keffiyah (checkered headdress) and an alabaster galabiya (traditional men's robe). As the blackened rock and firm sand under our wheels give way to shifting ochre dunes, we discover that Hamdy has two wives and three children. I note with interest that the wives live in separate towns. We also learn that Hamdy likes American R&B. He is particularly passionate about R Kelly, and we listen to the first four episodes of Trapped in the Closet. Treading a fine line between jocularity and horror, Joe sings along. He knows a disturbing amount of the lyrics. Hamdy is (sadly) impressed by Joe's singing and films one of Joe's impromptu segments; coming to an Egyptian YouTube channel near you.

After two hours of coursing through the dunes, we drop precariously. It is as if all of the land fell at once, a broad valley stretching as far as I can see. Here and there, copper colored mesas rise above the shifting sands. The horizontal striations along the sides of the mesas tell a story of  millions of years of receding water levels, the story ending with a dead sea and an ocean of dust and sand.

When we arrive at Wadi Al-Hitan however, we grasp that there is more here than dust and sand. Hany leads our caravan of three Landcruisers into the site parking lot. UN funding has ensured the maintenance and upkeep of this place. Several one-story buildings, domed structures made of sun-dried brick, provide visitors with shade, modern toilets, and even an area to cook meals. Hany, purchases tickets for our group, gives us a brief introduction about the park, and then leaves us to enjoy the hike on our own.

The hike takes one to two hours. We see ochre, toadstool-like rock formations, mud-mounds that are millions of years old. Our path meanders through these magnificent features. Beneath some of the mud-mounds lay the preserved skeletal remains of basilosaurus. Some of the best specimens from the park have long since been taken to museums for further inspection, but 15 or so fine examples have been demarcated and preserved. The best skeleton, a relatively small basilosaurus, is encountered about halfway through the hike. The creature's crocodile-like head and snout still have some teeth intact. The animal's fins and spinal column are easily discernible; the intact fossilized remains of an ancient whale in the midst of a desert. Incredible.

I would love to stay longer, but today is hot. The midday sun hammers down on us. Our water goes quickly; lips begin to feel baked and crispy. We head slowly back towards the park entrance. An hour-and-a-half later, we are sprawled out under one of the site's shelters, Hany serving us a cooked lunch of okra and tomato stew poured over a bed of rice. Also incredible.

Ged rockets down the dune

We regain our strength and pack up. The day is not over yet. Hany leads our caravan out of the park and toward a nearby shifting sand dune. We park at the base, the dune rising several hundred feet above us. Time for sandboarding. Imagine snowboarding except on sand. That's sandboarding. No helmet, no pads. Just you, your board, and the dune.

The kids take to it immediately. It takes us adults a little longer. Matthew and Emily, the youngest of our troop, bound halfway up the dune and glide down. At first they sit on the board, but then they muster the courage to stand, surfer-style. Before long, they are asking Hany to wax the bottoms of their boards so that they can go faster. Once the adults get the hang of it, they are pretty good, too. Ged, the tallest of our group, manages to make it the farthest up the dune, and he summits with a freshly waxed board. He slaloms down at quite a speed, making it look easy and oh, so much fun.

The trouble with sandboarding though is that it is such a trudge up the side of a shifting sand dune. Step ... slide down, step ... slide down. I make it about a quarter of the way up. I am panting, thighs burning from the exertion. In the time it takes me to amble  up, Matthew and Emily have been up and down and are on their way back up again. Ah, to have that much energy again.

The sun begins to set, our sandboarders casting impossibly long shadows down the slopes of the dunes. The kids take a couple of more runs, and then we need to leave. Hany tells us that foxes and jackals roam these parts after dark. What he does not say is that we are also in a relatively conservative part of the county, and that it is best to be back in Cairo before it gets too dark. So we pack our boards, climbing back into our modern ships of the desert.

We drive out of the dusty, barren valley. The land looks gaunt and thirsty. Driving away, it is difficult to believe that ages ago, this place was very different. That once upon a time, this area teemed with life; that the valley that once was a sea bed and home to millions of sea creatures.

*This week's photos by Dana Purpura.