One Step Up and Two Steps Back?

One step up ... maybe

Following months of speculation, Egypt's worst kept secret was this week finally made public. Field Marshall Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces who led the ouster of former president Mohammed Morsi, communicated his resignation from the military in order to run for the presidency. In a televised speech aired earlier in the week, al-Sisi announced his resignation, declaring his presidential candidacy. 

For many Egyptians this is good news. Al-Sisi has an almost cult-like following.  A career infantry officer, he is cut from the same military mold as Nasser and Sadat. In his previous speeches he has focused on security and stability, two themes popular among business owners and shop keepers. He is a devout Muslim who often quotes from the Koran, a personal characteristic that is popular among Egypt's poor and working classes. In his speech this week he stressed security, unity, hard work, and prosperity. Who doesn't support these ideas?

For some Egyptians the promises of a brighter future ring hollow. For them the prospect of an al-Sisi presidency represents catastrophe and failure. In 2012, when president Morsi tapped al-Sisi to head the armed forces, conservative Muslims and members of the now-outlawed Muslim Brotherhood inwardly cheered. They saw in al-Sisi a kindred, pious spirit. Finally one of their own, a conservative Muslim, was heading Egypt's revered and powerful military apparatus. Less than a year later, al-Sisi was leading the charge against President Morsi, a charge that led to Morsi's fall and subsequent incarceration. A charge that led to the downfall of the Morsi government. Al-Sisi's former Muslim Brotherhood supporters now view him as a traitor. 

Some liberal-minded university students do not support al-Sisi either, although they do not see him as a traitor. Liberals view al-Sisi as another Mubarak, a former military commander assuming the reigns of the state. A return to business as usual. An outright denial of the ideals of the 2011 revolution.

Given the public display of flags, posters, even al-Sisi shaped chocolates however, the former general's supporters seem to grossly outnumber his detractors. Al-Sisi is expected to win the upcoming May elections by a wide margin. With elections just two months away, the only other candidate in the presidential race is Hamdeen Sabahi, a liberal/leftist politician and poet who finished third in the 2012 presidential election. Sabahi is popular among college liberals but is seen by most as a rather obscure leftist.

Pragmatists would question why either al-Sisi or Sabahi would want to seek the presidential post. The job will certainly not be easy. The next president will administer over an Egypt where one in every four or five citizens lives on less than two dollars per day. An Egypt where the government annually pays billions of dollars toward bread and fuel subsidies. An Egypt where inflation rates are rising into the double-digits. An Egypt where weekly public protests and clashes result in multiple deaths. An Egypt where daily power outages and rolling blackouts have become commonplace. To solve these crippling problems will be no easy task. Both al-Sisi and Sabahi have good reputations going into this election. Given the daunting tasks at hand, they have much to lose.

Two steps back ... certainly

If it wasn't al-Sisi's candidacy grabbing international headlines, it was Egyptian judge, Saeed Elgazar. Judge Elgazar is the man who this week sentenced 529 arrested protestors to death. The trial took place in the Minya district, a couple of hundred kilometers south of Cairo. 

Clashes between security forces and pro-Morsi demonstrators in Minya came to a head last August with protestors attacking a local police station, killing one officer. Security forces then overwhelmed the protestors, arresting hundreds. The protestors' trial was held this week. It lasted two days. Only 150 of the defendants, wearing their required white coveralls and locked behind a crowded cage in the courtroom, were present. The rest of the defendants were held in various prisons and detainment units throughout the country. Defense attorneys were not able to meet with most of the defendants. Testimony during the two-day trial was scant. In the end, 529 of the protestors received a death sentence. Judge Elgazar acquitted only 16 people. 

Human rights organizations immediately condemned the proceedings. Human Right Watch, Amnesty International, and even the United Nations Human Rights Commission have all criticized the conduct of the trial for its lack of respect to the rights of the accused and absence of procedural due process. Government officials and legal experts in Cairo were quick to distance themselves from the ruling, pointing out that provincial courts operate independently of the federal courts. The same Cairo officials were also quick to stress that the Minya ruling was subject to a federal appeals process. Few here in Cairo expect the sentences to be carried out, believing instead that a successful appeals process will overturn the decision. Still ...

Since August and the crackdown on political protests, over 16,000 people have been arrested. Most are still awaiting trial.