In the first presidential elections after the 2011 Revolution, the first "free" presidential election in Egypt's history, Mohammed Morsi won in 2012 with roughly 52% of registered voters casting their ballots. That kind of participation is about what voter turnout is in the U.S. during a presidential election when voter participation is considered to be "excellent." Compared with the U.S. there are many factors that contribute to non-voting behavior in Egypt: grinding poverty, comparatively low literacy rates, lack of understanding of voting procedures, a sense of disenfranchisement among those living in poverty, etc. The point is that 52% registered voter participation in the 2012 Egyptian presidential elections was considered to be "quite good."
Fast-forward to the Egyptian 2014 presidential election, the election pitting Mr. al-Sisi against leftist, Hamdeen Sabahi. The hope is that voter turnout will be higher, higher than the 2012 presidential election. With high voter participation, the victor could claim a strong sense of legitimacy. Under those kind of circumstances, a landslide victory would give the election winner a mandate. No such luck this time around. Voter turnout after the first two days of voting was an anaemic 37%.
Blaming the perilously hot weather and a minor Muslim religious observation, authorities announced a federal holiday on the second day of voting and then abruptly announced a third day of voting. Registered voters who stayed at home were even threatened with a $70 fine (a large sum for some Egyptians) for not voting. When the votes are all finally counted, it is doubtful that vote turnout will have climbed above 40%.
This is bad news for al-Sisi on several fronts. First, he cannot claim anything remotely close to a mandate. Having garnered 90% of the vote he may try to make this claim, but he will face valid criticism and opposition in doing so. Secondly, the now-outlawed Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and other conservative Muslim groups like the MB encouraged their followers to boycott the elections. Low voter participation fuels these groups and their causes. Although this election's relative low turnout is likely to have been the result of apathy and disenfranchisement, the MB and groups similar to the MB will claim these numbers as a sign of support. Finally, the numbers intimate that the fragmentation that has prevailed in Egyptian society since Mohammed Morsi's ouster last summer will probably continue. None of this is good news for incoming President al-Sisi.
And there is another dark and scary number lurking in the shadows. In the 2012 presidential election over 13 million Egyptians cast their vote for Mohammed Morsi, the same Mohammed Morsi that now languishes in prison. As a result of the 2014 election, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi will have captured something close to that amount of votes. For all of the idolatry and talk of a cult of personality associated with al-Sisi, he will have garnered roughly the same number of votes as Morsi captured in the previous election.
Given that massive economic restructuring in Egypt will have to soon commence, these numbers are quite inconvenient for the new president.
